At the start of this campaign I was in a very bad place. I couldn’t see how a PM could call an election from such a position of strength and not be handed a comprehensive victory over my poor bedraggled, divided Labour Party.
My personal challenge was who to vote for. I live in South West London in Twickenham, a LD / CON marginal. Over the other side of the river we have the People’s Republic of RPNK (Richmond Park and North Kington) another LD /CON marginal and Brentford and Isleworth, a LAB / CON marginal. A little further afield we have Surbiton — yet another LD / CON marginal.
Lets start with some personal observations of these constituencies. Labour have basically thrown in the towel in Twickenham and Richmond Park. It’s conceded that the LDs are the only real challenger to the Tories. The local constituency party is throwing all its resources and activities into Brentford and Isleworth and is fighting a very targeted squeeze / get the vote out campaign to hold off the Tories who are fighting hard. If you travel around Twickenham you’ll see a lot of orange and yellow and barely any blue. The Tory campaign has been quiet and is targeted at getting their support out. I’ve had LD communications at least every other day pointing out that I should lend them my support. That’s their principle tactic on Labour supporters (and its a good one). Surbiton is interesting — the battle between the LDs and the Tories is hand to hand. I don’t really have a sense that one side or the other really has the momentum yet. It’ll be an interesting result to look out for at the end of this week. Richmond Park — the local Tory Association came under real stress in the by-election. My feel from talking to people who live there is that there isn’t a whole lot of love for Goldsmith. Olney hasn’t done anything wrong but there doesn’t seem to be much recognition of her. The LDs are working VERY hard in both RPNK and Twickenham. I think Twickenham is nailed on but again, I’m not sure that either the Tories or the LDs have a very strong position just yet.
So, my dilemma was who or how to vote. To be honest, it still is. Do I spoil my vote or vote for Cable or vote for my Party when we’re barely running a campaign and know that this is a non-starter? I suspect I’ll decide when I’m in the voting booth.
Am I as despairing as I was 7 weeks ago? No. Corbyn has done what he is good at. May is looking wobbly. Farron….well, I can hear knives being sharpened. Which of Farron and May will be shuffled off first? Thats the next interesting question! Are Labour going to win — nope. Are we going to be annihalated — nope. Are the Tories going to win a smallish majority — yes. Are we set for interesting times? Oh my yes. Do I understand bugger all about politics at the moment — hell yes!
